The Price of a Caribbean Alliance: China’s Cumulative Losses in Venezuela and the Limits of Resource-Driven Cooperation Amid Regime Turbulence
Семенова Нелли КимовнаВосточная аналитика '2026, №3, с.75-93
DOI: 10.31696/2227-5568-2026-03-075-093
The article examines the economic and geopolitical costs of China’s presence in Venezuela from 1999 to 2026. The author proceeds from the assumption that the cooperation model based on the concentration of risks under conditions of political instability and unilateral dependence on commodity flows has demonstrated its limited sustainability in the face of external shocks. The study analyzes the structure and dynamics of bilateral economic relations, the volume of lost investments and trade flows, as well as the adaptation mechanisms that Beijing was forced to employ amid the regime change in Venezuela and the reorientation of Venezuelan oil policy toward the West. Particular attention is paid to comparing the initial goals of China’s strategy in the region with the final outcomes, which allows for the identification of institutional constraints and the limits of sustainability of China’s foreign economic expansion in countries with a high degree of political volatility. The Venezuelan case demonstrates that resource diplomacy based on a credit model and the political loyalty of a regime does not ensure long-term sustainability in the face of institutional shocks unless reinforced by mechanisms that extend beyond the scope of commercial agreements.