Статьи

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE RUSSIA’S DETERRENCE OF THE U.S. IN SYRIA AND BEYOND IN TERMS OF DEFENSIVE AND OFFENSIVE REALISM

Восточная аналитика '2019, №4, с.149-166

 
Тhe analysis of the facts of the current Russian policy allows the modern theory of international relations to continue the discussion about which approach is more effec- tive – in the case of offensive or defensive realism? The article is devoted to approach Russia’s strategy of countering the US indirectly through the intermediate states. It’s concerned with the reasons why Russia decided to engage in the Syrian conflict in 2015 and what are in this perception are the real goals of Russia’s policy in the region. These questions cannot be considered out of connection with the total confrontation of Rus- sia with the western countries in Ukraine. The Syrian conflict is only an external deck for Russia in countering the U. S. Russia tests its own power to force the U.S. out of Syria and seeks any opportunity to demonstrate the U.S. how vulnerable they are. There is a triangle of interests of key regional actors – Turkey, Iran and Russia. And all of the tri- angle’s sides oppose the U. S. The rising confrontation with Washington in Syria triggers Moscow to seek a ways how to use other potential rivals of the U.S. as Washington has a lot of tension and conflicts beyond the Middle East. The author’s analysis of the actors behavior is based on the “security dilemma” and the “balance of power” approaches. Following a certain scholarly approach it is presumed that Moscow acquires the power via the “low-cost strategies” without the straight projection of power, using any oppor- tunity to balance the U.S. power via the other countries