ЮГО-ВОСТОЧНАЯ АЗИЯ: АКТУАЛЬНЫЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫ РАЗВИТИЯ '2008, №1, с.28-37Колдунова Екатерина Валерьевна
In the article «ASEAN: Regionalism and Prospects of Integration» E. Koldunova analyzes internal and external aspects of ASEAN's achievements for the past 40 years in the context of East Asian integration processes. Apparently, cooperation in the framework of Association is specified by regional features and is not identical to the European integration path. It is significant that South-east Asian regional cooperation model first of all proved to be aimed at shaping and maintenance of common values rather than functional integration. At the same time the Association's activity can be considered quite effective in balancing external powers' influence in the region and developmental orientation of South-east Asian states.
ЮГО-ВОСТОЧНАЯ АЗИЯ: АКТУАЛЬНЫЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫ РАЗВИТИЯ '2008, №1, с.38-50Мосяков Дмитрий Валентинович
Dr. Dmitry Mosyakov analyses the current situation and political maneuvering in South-East Asia. In this respect he considers the political course of the US as well as Japan to consolidate their geo-political positions in the region. Great attention is also paid to China's attempts to intensify its influence in South-East Asia. The author studies the policy of ASEAN aimed at both consolidation of inner unity of the Association (passing of ASEAN'S Charter) and at multi-direction relations on the basis of advantage in a choice of partners in the framework of confrontation between American-Japanese block vis-à-vis China.
ЮГО-ВОСТОЧНАЯ АЗИЯ: АКТУАЛЬНЫЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫ РАЗВИТИЯ '2008, №1, с.51-56Осипова Мария Григорьевна
In her paper Dr. Marina Osipova analyses the causes of cyclical world crises. The world financial system is in the process of evolution under the influence of both globalization and regional integration. Contradictions resulting from these trends are very difficult to resolve. What are the means to be applied? The first thing to do is to improve the world financial system. To this aim the joint attempts of all the participants of the world financial market are necessary.
ЮГО-ВОСТОЧНАЯ АЗИЯ: АКТУАЛЬНЫЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫ РАЗВИТИЯ '2008, №1, с.57-63Рогожин Александр Александрович
A.A. Rogozhin in the report «Integration Process in SEA: Energy Dimension» ascertained, that in 2007 the problem of energy security in SEA has extremely become aggravated. Its decision could not be delayed as the situation seems to be disturbing (and in some cases even alarming) in oil-and-gas complex of the ASEAN countries themselves, as well as on the world energy market. In 10-12 years to come ASEAN countries would not be able to secure their needs from the energy resources of their own. The countries of region will be gradually compelled to increase the dependence on import, and Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand would be the first be affected. The author is of opinion that all ASEAN countries including oil and LNG exporters will become net-importers of oil and, most likely, natural gas. Growing deficiency of energy resources specifies that in long-term perspective SEA countries could not secure stable flows of energy ─ the fact making the region less attractive for investors. This circumstance, undoubtedly, has the important consequences not only for internal policy of the members of Association, but for their external economic policy and especially ─ for energy diplomacy. Both in the countries of ASEAN as well in the Association itself there is a steady opinion that its member-countries are not able to solve the problem of their national energy securite using the resources of their own only. This challenge could be accepted only at a regional level by concerted efforts of all member-states of ASEAN.
ЮГО-ВОСТОЧНАЯ АЗИЯ: АКТУАЛЬНЫЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫ РАЗВИТИЯ '2008, №1, с.64-77Рогожина Наталия Григорьевна
In the article «International labour migration in South-East Asia» N.G. Rogojina notes that international migration is not a new historical phenomena for the countries of the region. But today this process has acquired new content and forms in line with those tendencies of development that are occurring in the region and globally and is explained by differences in labor markets and by inequality in income between countries. Intensity as well as the direction of the flow of migrants have changed and a new group of the countries of SEA has emerged ─ the centers of immigration with high proportion of foreign workers in their labour force. Meanwhile migration occurring on economic basis, particularly temporary labour migration, is spreading quickly and will play an important role in prospective development of the region.
ЮГО-ВОСТОЧНАЯ АЗИЯ: АКТУАЛЬНЫЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫ РАЗВИТИЯ '2008, №1, с.79-93Васильев Владимир Федорович
Dr. V.F. Vasiliev concentrated on analysis of a chain of events in Myanmar, starting from the «shaffran revolution» in September 2007 and leading the military junta to prompt activisation of its long-delayed constitutional process with publication of draft constitution and holding a referendum on it in May, which overwhelmingly approved it in the tragic days after the deadly Cyclone Nargis struck southern Myanmar. The author describes the controversial political atmosphere after the referendum with the authorities triumphant, the opposition groups opposing the constitution and confused and the appearance of a «third force» accepting the constitution as a lesser evil compared to an open military dictatorship. In the author's view, it is worth-while not to reject the «constitutional chance» and use it. It is better with a constitutional than without it, whatever are the wrongs and rights of the military-made constitution. The situation in Myanmar now needs compromise more than ever, otherwise it is an endless deadlock.
ЮГО-ВОСТОЧНАЯ АЗИЯ: АКТУАЛЬНЫЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫ РАЗВИТИЯ '2008, №1, с.94-118Другов Алексей Юрьевич
Dr. Alexei Drugov in his paper entitled «Indonesia in 2007» emphasized that political developments in the country were mainly influenced by fighting inside the political elite on the very far approaches to the parliamentary and presidential elections of 2009. Not sufficient communication between the Head of the State and the Vice-President is stressed. Generally favorable trends in the economy of Indonesia were accompanied by financial problems resulted from high world oil prices and the consequent growth of subsidies for domestic energy prices. Some drawbacks of Indonesian economy -as stated - manifested themselves on the macro level. In the foreign policy of Indonesia certain estrangement from the US actions in Iraq and Afghanistan could be detected. The visit of the President of the Russian Federation V.V. Putin to Indonesia with several agreements including those on military and technical cooperation being signed in the cause of it is of great importance for further Indonesian-Russian ties. Alarming developments in relations between Indonesia and Singapore as well as Malaysia are under way. They are partially connected with Indonesian-Singapore agreements on defense cooperation and extradition of criminals and with the plight of Indonesian workers in Malaysia. The inner latent causes of the conflicts still are territorial problems.
ЮГО-ВОСТОЧНАЯ АЗИЯ: АКТУАЛЬНЫЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫ РАЗВИТИЯ '2008, №1, с.119-134Ефимова Лариса Михайловна
L.M. Efimova in her article «Modern Islam in Malaysia» is analyzing the concept of Islam Hadhari introduced by the present prime minister Of Malaysia Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi. Islam Hadhari is not a new religion of teaching. It is an approach to foster an Islamic civilization built upon the values and ideals of Islam. It places substance over form. It is practical and pragmatic. It emphasizes development that is consistent with the tenets of Islam, but at the same tine with healthy democratic practices and modern education. It is aimed at equitable sharing of the benefits of economic growth by all citizenry of the country irrespective of ethnicity or religion.
ЮГО-ВОСТОЧНАЯ АЗИЯ: АКТУАЛЬНЫЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫ РАЗВИТИЯ '2008, №1, с.135-149Левтонова Юлия Олеговна
Dr. Yulia Levtonova researches the political situation in the Philippines in the period before next presidential elections 2010. The author considers the prospects of political situation President G. M. Arroyo regime. She analyses the phenomenon of this leader as a most unpopular President after 1986 who is holding a high ruling position for almost 8 years. The special attention is paid to the research not only Ms G. Arroyo personality and leadership but to the stabilizing and destabilizing process and trends which have influence the political development of the Philippines. Special attention is paid also the new stage of the Muslim - Christian conflict in the South of the Philippines and its challenge to security and stability the whole region of SEA. In spite of negative trends in philippine politics the author's conclusion is cautiously optimistic. There is still possibility of constitutional procedure of changing the presidential post in 2010.
ЮГО-ВОСТОЧНАЯ АЗИЯ: АКТУАЛЬНЫЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫ РАЗВИТИЯ '2008, №1, с.150-169Мазырин Владимир Моисеевич
Dr. Vladimir Mazyrin of the Russian Academy of Sciences Institute for Far Eastern Studies in his paper analyses the first consequences for the economy of Vietnam of its joining the WTO. In 2007 substantial results in development of a market economy were achieved which manifested themselves in higher rates of growth, greater total public investments and bigger gold-currency reserve, wider foreign trade and inflow of foreign investments as well as lower level of poverty. Economic achievements strengthened political stability and ensured Vietnam's higher role in international relations. At the same time the paper emphasizes the new problems and challenges facing the country. The quality indicators lag behind the quantity ones and Vietnam's economic growth remains extensive. Such problems as inflation, deficit of foreign trade and of the state budget, inflating the bubble in real estate market, slower investment projects realization have intensified. Dr. Mazirin comes to the conclusion that Vietnam has fallen victim of too fast a growth, deeper integration into the global market and implementation of the WTO requirements. Due to cyclical development of the SRV economy in the orbit of capitalism and its greater dependence on a conjuncture of world market the author predicts significantly lower dynamics of its growth for the years to come.